Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Dirty Mario?

From a story by the Times' Landon Thomas about ECB President Mario Draghi:
“You do not go back to the lira or the drachma or whatever,” Mr. Draghi declared at that same early-August news conference. By alluding to the former currency of his home country, Italy, and seeming to place it in the same category of woebegone Greece, Mr. Draghi — who played a crucial policy role in the euro’s creation — signaled that he was taking the bears’ skepticism personally. 

“It’s like Dirty Harry saying, ‘Make my day,”’ said Stephen Jen, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund who now manages a hedge fund based in London. “You can’t imagine Greenspan or Bernanke saying something like this,” he said, referring to the previous and current U.S. central bank chairmen, Alan Greenspan and Ben S. Bernanke. “It was very Italian and very powerful.” 

Mr. Draghi’s weapon of choice, of course, is more subtle than the Smith & Wesson .44 Magnum favored by Clint Eastwood in the “Dirty Harry” movies. But from a financial markets perspective, there is no less firepower in his suggestion that the E.C.B. might buy the bonds of countries like Spain and Italy if they commit to tough measures to reduce deficits and restructure their economies. 
Of course, what made Eastwood's Inspector Callaghan "Dirty" was his willingness to break the rules.  If he really means to save the Euro,  Mario Draghi may need to show a similar disregard for legal niceties.  I'm not an expert on the ins and outs of the Maastricht treaty, so I won't take a position on whether large-scale purchases of the bonds of distressed governments by the ECB exceeds its authority (or on the related question of whether the "European Stability Mechanism" is constitutional), but some - particularly in Germany - have been making that case (see, e.g., here and here).

Some of the relevant language from the Maastricht treaty:
Article 104 1. Overdraft facilities or any other type of credit facility with the ECB or with the central banks of the Member States (hereinafter referred to as “national central banks”) in favour of Community institutions or bodies, central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of Member States shall be prohibited, as shall the purchase directly from them by the ECB or national central banks of debt instruments...

Article 104b 1. The Community shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law or public undertakings of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project.
If Draghi is serious about doing whatever it takes to save the Euro, he won't let that slow him down.
Critics of intervention can make appeals - perhaps with some validity - to the "rule of law," but this is a case where following the letter of the law (at least if its interpreted strictly) would lead to a real human disaster if the Euro cracked up in a crisis.

Some people found Dirty Harry's rule-breaking objectionable (Pauline Kael called it "fascist medievalism"). But John Wayne's perspective - in the context of explaining why he turned down the role - might be instructive for Draghi:
I thought Harry was a rogue cop. Put that down to narrow-mindedness because when I saw the picture I realized that Harry was the kind of part I'd played often enough: a guy who lives within the law but breaks the rules when he really has to in order to save others.
A little rule breaking is part of the tradition of central banking - as Brad DeLong explained, modern central banking came into being when the Bank of England acted outside its legal authority by assuming the role of "lender of last resort" during the panic of 1825.

Unlike Dirty Harry, whose magnum had six bullets, there will be no question of whether or not Dirty Mario has run out of firepower.  The question that remains is the extent of his willingness to use it, even if it means risking having to turn in his badge later.

Draghi probably wouldn't like the analogy, but I'd imagine its preferable to being called "Super Mario" all the time.

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